Monday, April 14, 2014

Lent Post: Russia and Estonia

Salvete.

Well, today I read from the ERR (a popular Estonian news source) that ethnic Russians decided to host a pro-Russian rally outside the Russian embassy.

http://news.err.ee/v/politics/9307203d-2534-4587-9fe8-61f86f8166d5

I laugh at their attempt.

That said, I am concerned for the Baltics. I heard on the radio today the concern that NATO would probably not retaliate over an invasion of the Baltics or even an invasion of Poland. If we cede the Baltics, we lose our advantage on the Baltic Sea, since Russia would have ample shoreline. Estonia is too financially and symbolically important to lose in the Second Cold War against Russia. Estonia is the pawn in front of the king, in danger of other pawns, knights, a bishop, and a queen. If Estonia is lost, we get nothing out of it, and they have an incredible position, which they can fortify with any of their pieces. Is Estonia too small and weak to defend with NATO troops? Perhaps, but NATO presence would mean the difference between a solid win and a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians. Russia would think twice before going further, and we would have left the Baltics practically unscathed. The Russian force in Estonia would be weak enough for underground movements to take over the task of reclaiming Estonia, if, of course, Russia moves past the Baltics.

Letting the Baltic states be taken is not a tactical retreat, nor is it a sign of wisdom. It is surrender in the Baltics, just as we surrendered Ukraine by not thinking ahead.

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